Market Summary for the Beginning of October Sales volume eased in September. We are currently measuring a sales count of 6,722 for all areas and types, which is 6% lower than our most recent count of 7,156 for August. Note that this latter count is much lower than the 7,438 we initially reported on September 4. Many of the August sales which had been reported early in September dropped out over the following weeks as we suggested they might. Short sales in particular reduced from 2,264 to 2,028, a fall of over 10%. The more that short sales dominate the sales count, the less reliable the early sales counts tend to be. Short sales were a smaller factor in September, comprising 24% of all sales (down from 29%) while REOs jumped from 42% to 46% and normal sales recovered slightly from 29% to 30%. Average pricing fell 2.5% from $164,380 to $160,230 and average price per sq. ft. declined nearly 3% from $84.83 to $82.40. However the monthly median sales price nudged up from $119,000 to $120,000. I wouldn't get excited about this rise because median prices sometimes bump about like this for no particular reason and we strongly recommend average price per sq. ft. as a far more reliable measurement of pricing action. So sales are 13% below the same point last year while pending listings are down about 22% since then. Demand is nevertheless showing some small signs of relative strength since pending listings are up slightly (4%) month to month. This rise has managed to keep the Cromford Market Index™ in the tight range of 85.8 to 86.3 for the entire month of September. Supply continues to grow steadily, with overall active listings up by 2.7% from the prior month. Almost all this growth is concentrated in the price ranges below $200,000 where the supply position is starting to look more excessive than it has for the last two years. New notices of trustee sale and completed foreclosures stayed at almost exactly the same level in September as in August. With July also at a similar level, the third quarter of 2010 proved to be the worst so far for trustee sales (15,209). However the quarterly total of new notices (23,198) was well below the previous record (28,394) set in May 2009. Despite the excess supply and relatively weak demand, there are several signs that pricing has stabilized for a while after the steep falls in the third quarter. We are not anticipating further steep falls during October, but we are also not seeing any signs of prices returning to the much higher levels of the second quarter. |